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Book Summary
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and
the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most
situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical
uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future
outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are
insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible.
Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy
Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that
Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one--not least
Steve Jobs--knew what a smartphone
- ISBN-13
- 9781324004776
- Language
- English
- Binding
- Hardcover
- Publisher
- W. W. Norton and Company
- Publishing Date
- 2020-03-17
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
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Product Specifications
Book Summary
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and
the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most
situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical
uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future
outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are
insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible.
Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy
Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that
Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one--not least
Steve Jobs--knew what a smartphone
Book Specifications
- ISBN-13
- 9781324004776
- Language
- English
- Binding
- Hardcover
- Publisher
- W. W. Norton and Company
- Publishing Date
- 2020-03-17